Volume projection form

This form can be opened from the Main group, the HOME form's To-do list, or by selecting FORM | VOLUME PROJECTION from the menu. Whichever method you use the form will open with the projection for the current schedule displayed. If you have not yet projected volume for the current schedule, the projection will be blank.

Purpose of the Volume projection form

The Volume projection form is used to generate the volume projection that ESP will use when generating shifts for the current scheduling week and stores the projection that past schedules were based on.

Generating a volume projection is the third step in preparing your weekly schedule. Each week you will open this form to generate a projection for the current schedule.

Form fields

This form is divided into two sections:

1. Comments
2. Volume: sales or transactions

Comments

The Comments section is used to enter comments about the current scheduling week, such as promotions that will be running or other conditions that you consider might significantly impact the volume. This information is useful when you look back at the schedule on a future date.

Volume: Sales or transactions

This area displays a weekly view of your preferred volume: sales or transactions; as defined on the Preferences form in the Settings group. ESP looks at the displayed values when generating shifts for the scheduling week.

This area is setup in a table format with the days of the week displayed along the top row and the weekly total at the bottom; these fields are static and remain visible as you move around the form. Each hour of the day is displayed in a row down a column on the left side and the hourly total for each day is displayed along the row. A blank field indicates that either no information has been generated for that hour or the location was not open during that hour. Scroll down the form to view daily totals.

Generating a volume projection

If you open this form and the volume area is blank it means that you have not yet generated a volume projection for the current schedule. Use the Generate projection option to generate your volume projection or to regenerate a projection at any time. When you select this option the Generate volume projection window shown below is displayed.

Each week you will use the options in this window to tell ESP how to calculate your volume for the current schedule. Begin by selecting the type of projection: Standard or Advanced.

Standard projection

The Standard projection option allows you to quickly calculate a projection by averaging a specified number of consecutive previous weeks of volume on file. Additionally, you can adjust this projection up or down by a percentage; with this option all weeks will be adjusted by the same percentage.

Advanced projection

Selecting this option displays a list of all the weeks of volume on file and includes any comments you may have entered for each week. You may select any number of weeks for ESP to include when calculating your volume projection.

To select a week of volume to be used in your projection, simply check the box in the Selected field for that week. You can also adjust the values for the week selected by entering a number in the % Adjust field. Each week selected may be adjusted by a different percentage.

Using the Advanced projection option is particularly useful for weeks when you expect the volume will be significantly different from the previous consecutive weeks. For example, during a Holiday week such as Christmas, basing the projection on the previous weeks would not produce an accurate projection. In this case you may wish to use the Advanced projection option and select the previous year(s) entries.

Options

After selecting your type of projection you can fine tune the projection using options found in the bottom section called Options.

Type of data smoothing to use

Using data smoothing allows ESP to project your volume in a way that can help anticipate your labor needs during dramatic volume changes. ESP stores your volume history in quarter-hour periods, even if you only enter hourly values. When projecting your volume, instead of dividing an hourly volume amount into equal quarter-hour amounts, you can use data smoothing to "smooth out" rapid hourly volume changes by automatically adjusting the underlying quarter-hour entries.

For example, let's say your volume is 80 transactions at 11:00 AM and 200 transactions at 12:00 PM (noon). The 80 transactions at 11:00 AM are normally divided evenly into 20 transactions every quarter-hour between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM, and the 200 transactions at 12:00 PM are normally divided evenly into 50 transactions every quarter-hour between 12:00 PM and 1:00 PM. With no data smoothing used, ESP will project your volume retaining these equal amounts in the underlying quarter-hour periods.

However, a dramatic volume change like this usually indicates that your quarter-hour sales rates have been increasing throughout the 11:00 to 12:00 period. Instead of equal volume of 20 transactions for each quarter-hour, the actual volume is more likely similar to:

• 10 transactions between 11:00 AM to 11:15 AM;
• 15 transactions between 11:15 AM to 11:30 AM;
• 25 transactions between 11:30 AM to 11:45 AM; and
• 30 transactions between 11:45 AM to 12:00 AM.

You still have a total of 80 transactions in the hour, but a very different underlying volume pattern.

Using data smoothing allows ESP to redistribute your underlying volume, retaining the total hourly rate while accounting for significant leading and trailing volume changes in the underlying quarter-hour periods. The end result is a volume projection that more accurately anticipates your labor needs. Since your volume projection determines your shift placement, your schedule will more accurately meet your customer service needs. In this case, an employee may be brought in fifteen-minutes earlier than the hourly volume would indicate, helping cover the rush period, and allowing you to maintain higher levels of customer service.

You can choose from the following data smoothing options:

• None: ESP assigns each fifteen-minute period that makes up an hourly volume identical values.
• Half hour: ESP looks ahead and uses the coming volume rate to adjust each quarter-hour rates only in half-hour blocks. Using the example, with this option ESP would split the 80 transactions between 11:00 AM and 12:00 PM into two unequal amounts; the first half hour may be 25 and the second 55. This gives the same 80 transactions total but the second half is adjusted based on the coming rush.
• Quarter hour: ESP will adjust each underlying quarter-hour volume rate independently.
• Hour: ESP will adjust your volume the same as the None option above; assigning each fifteen-minute period an equal value.

Remove high and low values

This option allows ESP to eliminate the effect of unusual sales fluctuations. When you check this option, ESP will remove the highest and lowest value for each hour from all the weeks selected before generating a projection based on the remaining values. When using this option, you must select at least five weeks to include in your projection for ESP to remove these values.

Generate the projection

After making your selections press the OK button to continue. Depending on the number of weeks in the projection, calculation time can take anywhere from a few seconds to a few minutes.

Modify/edit your projection

ESP should generate an accurate projection because it is based on your actual volume history. From time to time, however, there may be conditions that affect the volume for the current schedule that cannot be effectively projected using your history. For example, there may be a parade in town or you may be running a special on Saturday. To account for these conditions you can edit the projected volume on the screen.

You may edit any hourly, daily, or even a weekly total. You may also expand an individual hour using the plus (+) sign in the hour field, or use the Expand/Contract all button on the toolbar to review and modify quarter-hour amounts. If you prefer to view your volume in half-hour increments select VOLUME | VIEW DETAIL BY on the menu and choose the half-hour option.

When you change an hourly total, each quarter-hour amount is adjusted proportionately. If you change a daily or weekly total, all of the amounts for that day or the whole week are adjusted.

You can also adjust a section of the values area by the same percentage, up or down, by highlighting the section and entering a number in the Adjust selected values by % box on the toolbar. This option adjusts the highlighted area all at once saving you from having to manually adjust each entry.

Generating volume for multiple sites

If you are scheduling for more than one location or department, a tab for each location will be displayed at the top of the form to allow easy movement between locations. No tabs are displayed if you schedule only one location.

When scheduling for more than one location, you will see a check box at the bottom of the Generate volume projection window that says Generate projection for all departments. If you check that box then a new projection for all departments will be generated. If you leave this unchecked then a projection for the active location only will be generated.